Far Apart, Too Connected to Ignore

Abstract

Relations between the United States and Canada, long shaped by unequal power, contested sovereignty and deep economic and security integration, have entered a period of renewed tension. Tariffs, separatist pressures and electoral calculations raise questions about the resilience of this longstanding partnership and its wider consequences. This policy brief examines the historical and political drivers of the dispute and its potential implications for global energy markets and East Africa. It argues that the greatest external risk is not the bilateral confrontation alone, but its possible interaction with disruptions linked to the Russia–Ukraine war, closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the increasing insecurity in the Red Sea. Such convergence could increase energy-price volatility, transport costs and inflation across fuel-importing economies. For the Horn of Africa, the central concern is how distant political tensions may compound existing market vulnerabilities, rather than direct reliance on Canadian energy.