Understanding Conflicts,Anticipating Change, & Informing Policy

TRT World — The Newsmakers: US airstrikes against al-Shabaab

Earlier this afternoon, our director joined TRT World’s The Newsmakers panel discussion to examine US airstrikes against al-Shabaab and the persistent gap between tactical military effectiveness and strategic progress in Somalia. The central dilemma is that an insurgency can be militarily degraded without being politically or institutionally defeated. US airpower can disrupt al-Shabaab’s operations, target its leadership and constrain its military capabilities. Yet the organisation continues to demonstrate resilience through coercive governance, taxation, recruitment and exploitation of fragmented political authority. This exposes a fundamental weakness in Somalia’s counterinsurgency strategy: military operations have repeatedly outpaced the state’s capacity to consolidate territorial gains, establish legitimate local authority and deliver security and justice. Three strategic considerations follow: - Military effectiveness is not strategic success. The relevant indicators are declining insurgent influence, recruitment and territorial control, rather than the number of strikes conducted. - Sovereignty requires effective authority. Government consent to foreign operations matters, but meaningful sovereignty also depends on domestic institutional capacity and public accountability. - External assistance must build national capacity. Military cooperation should progressively reduce Somalia’s dependence on foreign intervention, not institutionalise it. The challenge is not simply to weaken al-Shabaab militarily, but to dismantle the political and institutional conditions that sustain its resilience. The decisive test is whether today’s military operations reduce the need for tomorrow’s intervention.

Earlier this afternoon, our director joined TRT World’s The Newsmakers panel discusion to examine US airstrikes against al-Shabaab and the persistent gap between tactical military effectiveness and strategic progress in Somalia. The central dilemma is that an insurgency can be militarily degraded without being politically or institutionally defeated. US airpower can disrupt al-Shabaab’s operations, target its leadership and constrain its military capabilities. Yet the organisation continues to demonstrate resilience through coercive governance, taxation, recruitment and exploitation of fragmented political authority. This exposes a fundamental weakness in Somalia’s counterinsurgency strategy: military operations have repeatedly outpaced the state’s capacity to consolidate territorial gains, establish legitimate local authority and deliver security and justice. Three strategic considerations follow: - Military effectiveness is not strategic success. The relevant indicators are declining insurgent influence, recruitment and territorial control, rather than the number of strikes conducted. - Sovereignty requires effective authority. Government consent to foreign operations matters, but meaningful sovereignty also depends on domestic institutional capacity and public accountability. - External assistance must build national capacity. Military cooperation should progressively reduce Somalia’s dependence on foreign intervention, not institutionalise it. The challenge is not simply to weaken al-Shabaab militarily, but to dismantle the political and institutional conditions that sustain its resilience. The decisive test is whether today’s military operations reduce the need for tomorrow’s intervention. Watch the discussion: https://lnkd.in/eGGD44zx