Across the Gulf of Aden

Summary

For centuries, Somalia and Yemen have been connected through maritime trade, migration, finance and illicit exchange. What is changing is the strategic function of these long-established networks. Amid protracted conflict, fragmented authority and intensifying competition around the Red Sea, commercial relationships and maritime infrastructure are increasingly being repurposed to facilitate military capacities, expertise, intelligence and operational access across the Gulf of Aden. This transformation does not depend on a unified alliance. The Houthis, al-Shabaab, pirates, smugglers and financiers retain distinct interests, yet their complementary capabilities can support exchanges without a common command. Established routes, intermediaries and financial systems facilitate exchanges extending beyond weapons to technical knowledge and maritime intelligence, allowing military capabilities to circulate across separate conflicts. Competition involving Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Iran and Israel's engagement with Somaliland further raises the strategic value of the Somali coast. This brief argues that piracy, trafficking and militant contacts are manifestations of a wider transformation: the strategic repurposing of an established trans-Gulf security assemblage. Responses centred on individual shipments or actors will be insufficient unless they address the relationships, knowledge transfers and access arrangements through which these capabilities are built and sustained.